As part of his unceasing bravado, Donald Trump has claimed that he’s good at basically everything. However there’s one thing he always seems to fall back on when the going gets generally tough for him – the economy. The US has enjoyed a relatively strong economy without a recession for a record length of time in spite of Trump’s destabilizing nature and active dismantling of the American system. Some believe that his deregulation and laissez-faire treatment of the private sector has been a significant, if unsustainable, reason for the ongoing economic boom. Naturally, as corporate profits soar, the little guy suffers and the income inequality present when Trump took office has only widened. Now, however, it looks like things are about to get rough for Trump.
Uncertain bond trends have worried economists, as the dreaded inverted yield curve has acted as a herald of forthcoming recessions in the past. An uncertain German economy has also led economists to believe that Europe is facing similar unease. China’s growth has been slowing for some time and its future appears uncertain in light of the trade war with the US and political disturbances in Hong Kong. The specter and inevitability of global economic turmoil cannot be stopped by Trump.
What else can’t be stopped by Trump is the inevitability of a hit to his approval rating. In the midst of a global financial crisis, Trump will continue his schtick and, if anything, find remarkable ways to make matters worse. Money speaks to people like almost nothing else, and when they see that Trump isn’t doing well by them financially, they’ll cut ties in favor of someone else who might be able to. At some point, then, at least some of his supporters will see him as the new swamp.
At the time of writing this article, Trump’s going into 2020 with some advantages and some disadvantages. His few advantages are incumbency, the economy, and his base. I won’t bother to list his disadvantages because it would take far too long, but if you don’t already know, take my word that there are scores of them. After the economy goes down the tubes, which it almost certainly will before the election, he’ll have just his incumbency and a weakened base (weakened because of the bad economy). The Obama voters who went Trump in 2016 largely felt like Washington had left them by the wayside, hence why they voted for Trump. If the economy is bad in 2020, they’re going to feel abandoned once again. Trump can be a quarter-witted racist all he wants right now, but it’ll only get him so far when the real problem is felt in people’s pockets.