Donald Trump is in the worst reelection position that any incumbent U.S. President has ever faced. His approval rating is untenably low. He’s largely seen as having recklessly and dishonestly botched a deadly crisis. The economy is collapsing. Trump has only had one thing up his sleeve.
Even as Trump faces his own ugly reelection prospects, the Democratic side has been seen as a mess as well. Joe Biden is hugely popular. But the Democrats are stuck in limbo with a primary race that realistically ended a long time ago, but hasn’t been able to formally conclude because Biden’s defeated opponent Sanders is egomaniacally refusing to drop out. There’s been a lot of fear that Sanders, and the toxicity of some of his supporters, could ruin things for the Democrats for the second election in a row.
But the new Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll out today shows that despite all the perceived troubles on the Democratic side, Joe Biden now leads Donald Trump by a full ten points. In presidential election terms, ten points is a massive historic blowout. Palmer Report always preaches to look at the averages, and when you place this Harvard poll within the averages, you see that Biden’s lead over Trump is an average of about seven points. That’s still impressive. Here’s the kicker, though.
The Harvard poll says that Joe Biden has 96% support within the Democratic Party. That’s the kind of number you don’t generally see for a nominee until after every other candidate has dropped out and the primary race has officially been put to bed. This means that the vast, vast, vast majority of Democrats see this primary race as already being over, and that the games Sanders is playing are only for the benefit of a segment of people who aren’t Democrats anyway. This is great news for Biden and terrible news for Trump.
Bill Palmer is the publisher of the political news outlet Palmer Report