Prepare to be inundated with polls by the time November rolls around. Some may be more accurate than others, which is why CNN analyzes them for more accuracy. Polls are obviously trying to make predictions. That is what they do, but none are more accurate than the predictions made by Oxford Economics. Oxford has been accurate in its predictions since 1948, missing only twice: once in 1968 and once in 1976. Not a bad record if you can earn it. Where am I going with this? Oxford’s latest prediction may well knock some socks off.
According to Oxford, “president” Donald Trump will lose 2020 in a landslide. They predict that Trump will earn only 35% of the popular vote, primarily due to coronavirus and its impact on the economy. The latest model shows Joe Biden flipping Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, which were narrowly won by Trump in 2016. In addition to those states, Biden is predicted to win Ohio, Iowa, Missouri, and North Carolina. Trump succeeded in 2016 by edging Clinton out in the swing states, giving him the electoral college numbers necessary to win even though Clinton won the popular vote.
To understand just how shocking this prediction is, last fall Oxford projected that Trump would win reelection with 55% of the vote. So, what happened? Trump’s mishandling of coronavirus and rising unemployment numbers coupled with inflation. Oxford predicts that the economy will “be in a worse state than at the depth of the Great Depression,” which does not favor Trump and could favor Democrats; however, a Democratic victory will ultimately depend on voter turnout, and as the pandemic continues to evolve, uncertainty remains over much of life as a whole. Interestingly, Oxford’s model is closely aligned with goals set by the Biden campaign, and should Biden continue in that direction, he could well be the 46th president of the United States. In addition, Biden’s team is betting on creating some “new” battleground states: Georgia, Texas, and Arizona, which could provide a big boost for Biden in 2020.
Even as the people running Trump’s campaign try to paint Trump as the one to lead us out of this crisis, including Tim Murtaugh calling Biden a “political crank,” the noise they are making is resonating only with die-hard Trump supporters. The latest Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll shows Trump trailing Biden 38% to 46%. Murtaugh also says that Trump will be working “to increase his support among black and Latino voters.” That is a pipe dream if I ever heard one. Trump is a racist, and all black and brown people know it.
Regardless of what the polls are saying, Biden’s campaign is pressing forward with plans to increase its field workers. We need to follow Biden’s example by pressing forward despite numbers and predictions. These numbers cannot keep even one from the polls in November. That would be a mistake that would play right into Trump’s hands. The most important numbers right now are the next four years—free of Donald Trump.
Shirley is a former entertainment writer and has worked in the legal field for over 25 years