We keep seeing poll after poll, national poll after swing state poll, telling us that Donald Trump is in a deep hole. We also keep seeing media reports that Trump’s own internal polling is just as ugly as his public polling. Internal polling tends to be more detailed and thus more accurate for various reasons, and it guides a campaign’s overall strategy and spending.
There are few things worse for a campaign than having to play defense. If you have to spend time and resources defending a state that usually goes your way by a sizable margin, it means you have less time and fewer resources to spend in the swing states. Donald Trump is now running television ads in Texas of all places. This means that the Trump campaign’s own internal numbers say he’s in actual danger of losing Texas.
Last month the Quinnipiac poll had Trump up by just one point in Texas, with no major polling done there since. Trump’s decision to begin advertising there means that his internal polling is indeed in line with the public polling numbers being released. In other words, Trump really is losing as badly as we think he is.
Of course this doesn’t mean Donald Trump is going to lose. It just means that he’s in a deep hole right now, with four and a half months still to go. The real upshot here is that with Trump being forced to play defense in states that are supposed to be safe for him, it gives us an opening to expand Joe Biden’s lead by playing offense, in terms of driving voter registration and voter turnout. Let’s get to work!
Bill Palmer is the publisher of the political news outlet Palmer Report